Method For Assessing the Risk of Incidence from Weather and Climatic Factors

Abstract

Climate and weather are interdependent phenomena. Abrupt changes in the weather affect the health of the population, especially vulnerable groups - the elderly, people with chronic diseases and so on. The majority of the population practically does not feel sharp changes in atmospheric processes, however, a sharp change in meteorological parameters affects some people up to the onset of crisis situations. The paper proposes a method for assessing the risk of increase disease  depending on meteorological characteristics based on multiple regression. It is shown that as a result of a sharp change in meteorological characteristics, the number of diseases in a particular area may increase. The results of statistical processing of the dependence of the increase in morbidity on meteorological parameters based on hydrometeorological observations and medical statistics are presented. Multiple regression coefficients from 0.27 to 0.32 were obtained, which can be interpreted that meteorological parameters account for 30% of cases of diseases. About 70% are accounted for by other factors affecting the health of the population - genetic, environmental conditions, water supply, medical care, conditions and lifestyle.