Development of an Econometric Model of the Relationship between Migration Dynamics and Demographic Factors in Azerbaijan

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of the article is to build an econometric model of the relationship between the dynamics of migrants and the factors of the demographic process.

Theoretical basis: Individual counteracted equations are created to account for the components of demographic change -births, deaths, and net domestic and international migration. The fertility and mortality equations are easier to model because of the stable changes from period to period depending on income levels and national demographic trends. The net migration equations are more difficult to model because economic conditions, particularly labor market conditions, affect this process over time.

Method: The dialectical method was used to identify common approaches for studying a complex population. Methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison, induction and deduction, etc. were also used for demographic analysis. When developing regression models between the number of migrants and the three identified groups of factors directly influencing it, an econometric regression model was applied.

 Results and discussion: A model of the relationship between the number of migrants and the system of demographic factors is built in a five-stage system. Independent variable demographic factors were combined in three groups. Based on the selected data, a correlation model of the relationship between the number of migrants and demographic factors was constructed and the adequacy of the model in the absence of autocorrelation was verified at the level of α=0.01 (1%), α=0.05 (5%).

Research results: The results of the study can be applied in regulating the flow of migrants and maintaining its pace at an optimal level.

Originality/value: The research contributes to the regulation of international migration, thanks to the theoretical and practical results obtained. The relevance and value of the study is confirmed by the influence of migration and demographic processes on the standard of living of the population.