Prediction of Sunspot Number During Solar Cycle 25: Deducing a New Model by Box-Jenkins Technique

Abstract

Solar cycle is known as the solar magnetic activity cycle, is a nearly periodic 11 years change in the activity of the sun measured by observing the number of sunspots, its solar maximum and minimum refer to the periods of highest and lowest sunspot counts, respectively. Our recently studied cycle 25, which commenced in December 2019 with a minimum smoothed sunspot number of 1.8. It is expected to continue until around 2030. In our study, we developed a new statistical prediction model by using observed sunspot data from 1749 to August 2024 (approximately 276 years) to forecast sunspot numbers at the end of Solar Cycle 25. The correlation between output of the suggested model and the observed sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to August 2024 is a strong at 93.3% while the correlation coefficient between our predicted results and the published predicted data of NOAA demonstrates exceptionally very strong correlation at 98.7%.